Geopolitics, Backsliding and Progress at COP30
As climate change intensifies, some countries are retreating from their climate commitments. Next week, negotiators will convene in Brazil to reignite momentum. Delegates from across the globe, including myself, will attend the United Nations COP30 summit held in Belém, a city in the Brazilian Amazon.
Like many observers, I am uncertain about what outcomes to anticipate. This summit faces perhaps the toughest challenges in recent years. In the United States, the Trump administration has cut funding for climate science, halted renewable energy projects, increased fossil fuel exploitation, and exited the Paris Agreement once again.
Trump's efforts to hinder climate action have triggered intense geopolitical instability, overshadowing the primary global platform for climate coordination — even as the crisis deepens.
Last year marked the first time average global temperatures rose above 1.5°C. Climate-induced disasters are becoming more frequent and expensive, with devastating heatwaves, wildfires, and floods impacting most continents in 2025.
Every nation demands a voice, but many interests conflict. Petrostates and major fossil fuel exporters aim to maintain extraction levels, while Pacific island states watch helplessly as sea levels rise. Despite its flaws and the absence of a global climate authority, this annual summit remains the most effective forum to coordinate meaningful climate action commitments.
Key Issues to Watch in COP30
- Efforts to rebuild cooperation amid geopolitical tensions
- Balancing fossil fuel interests with urgent climate mitigation needs
- Responses to increasingly severe climate-related disasters
- Negotiation dynamics involving vulnerable nations such as small island states
These discussions will shape how the world confronts an escalating climate emergency.
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