Numerical Weather Prediction at 60: A Journey of Innovation at the Met Office
Sixty years ago, the Met Office began a transformative journey that revolutionized weather forecasting in the UK and globally. The adoption of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 was a pivotal moment, initiating an era of scientific and technological advancements that steadily improved forecast accuracy.
Early Experiments
The origins of NWP at the Met Office trace back to the early 1950s, when scientists like Fred H. Hinds, guided by John S. Sawyer, conducted pioneering experimental forecasts using the EDSAC computer at Cambridge. Although constrained by the technology of that era, these efforts laid the foundation for future developments.
Significant Milestones
In 1959, the installation of the Ferranti Mercury computer, called ‘Meteor’, at Dunstable marked a key milestone by providing the first dedicated computer for NWP research.
First Operational Forecast
The real breakthrough took place in 1965 with the arrival of the English Electric KDF9 computer, known as ‘Comet’, at Bracknell. On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a historic moment that attracted wide media coverage and initiated a new chapter in weather prediction.
“On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a moment that received widespread media attention and signalled the start of a new era in weather prediction.”
Continued Progress
The decades that followed were marked by rapid scientific and technological progress, further advancing the capabilities of NWP.
Author’s summary: Over six decades, the Met Office has pioneered numerical weather prediction, evolving it from early experiments to a highly advanced operational system, shaping modern forecasting worldwide.